The UAE is projected to exceed its renewable energy capacity targets for 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA’s Renewables 2024 report states that MENA countries collectively aim for 201 GW of renewable capacity by 2030. While the main-case forecast falls 26 percent short of this target, not all nations are expected to miss their ambitions. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Algeria represent nearly 60 percent of the region’s total goal. Although the outlook for these markets has improved since last year, the IEA indicates that their installed capacity will still not meet the 2030 targets.
The region’s growth could exceed the main case by 60 percent (152 GW) if three key challenges are addressed. The first is accelerating auction processes, as the current timeline for opening tenders, selecting winners, and signing Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) often exceeds one year. Speeding up these processes would help bring more projects online sooner.
The second challenge involves enhancing the regulatory framework for distributed solar PV, which includes reforms to support self-consumption and compensation for surplus electricity generation. Although some countries have established legal frameworks for self-consumption and net metering, there is little public data on significant deployment in commercial and residential sectors, except in the UAE, indicating that implementation is still a challenge. Additionally, ensuring electricity tariffs are cost-reflective would make renewable energy more attractive, especially for large industries.
Finally, the report notes that further growth would come from increased industrial electrification and the removal of barriers for new market entrants, facilitating broader use of corporate PPAs.
Meanwhile, solar PV capacity in the Middle East and North Africa is expected to grow by 84 GW by 2030, predominantly from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with overall capacity projected to increase more than fourfold between 2024 and 2030.
