The UAE’s economy is on track to grow by 3.3% in 2024, accelerating to 4.1% in 2025, according to The World Bank‘s latest semi-annual MENA Economic Update. This growth is largely attributed to the UAE’s strong non-oil sector, which continues to drive economic diversification. Additionally, the report predicts that the UAE will lead the region in real GDP per capita growth, projected at 2.5% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025.
Despite this robust economic outlook, the UAE’s current account surplus is anticipated to decrease from 9.2% of GDP in 2023 to 7.5% in 2024, reflecting the broader regional trend of moderating surplus levels amid global economic uncertainties. Fiscal surpluses, however, will remain steady, with estimates at 4.9% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025, showcasing the nation’s fiscal stability and prudent financial management.
Regionally, the broader MENA region is projected to see modest GDP growth, from 1.8% in 2023 to 2.2% in 2024, driven by stronger performance in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The GCC’s growth is expected to climb from 1.9% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, further strengthening the region’s economic influence.
However, outside the GCC, growth prospects remain less optimistic. Developing oil exporters are predicted to grow at 2.7% in 2024, while oil-importing countries are forecasted to experience slower growth at 2.1% during the same period.
The World Bank’s report underscores the importance of continued diversification in the UAE and across the GCC, as the region aims to reduce its reliance on oil and adapt to global economic trends.
