The United Arab Emirates will achieve 4.1 per cent GDP growth in 2025, as a strong non-oil sector and recovering oil production drive the economy, according to the World Bank.
“UAE growth remains robust, with GDP estimates at 6.2 per cent by the CBUAE, 5.1 per cent by the IMF, and 4.1 per cent by the World Bank,” said Razan Hilal, Market Analyst at FOREX.com.
The UAE’s non-oil sector, supported by tourism, real estate, construction, and manufacturing, grew by 4.1 per cent in 2024. Residential transactions hit 140,000 units by October, marking a 36 per cent year-on-year rise. Initiatives like the 2030 AI strategy and ‘Sandbox Dubai’ further enhance Dubai’s global innovation leadership.
Inflation fell to 2.4 per cent in October, the lowest since August 2023, while anticipated monetary easing could stimulate growth through lower interest rates.
Wider GCC Outlook
The GCC region will grow by 4.2 per cent in 2025-2026, following 1.6 per cent in 2024. “The region shows resilience amid global disruptions, but prudent policies are vital for sustainable growth,” said Safaa El Tayeb El-Kogali, World Bank GCC Country Director.
Saudi Arabia expects growth to rebound to 4.7 per cent in 2025-2026, following a modest 1.1 per cent in 2024 due to oil production cuts. Meanwhile, Kuwait faces a 1 per cent contraction in 2024, while Bahrain and Oman anticipate stable growth at 3.3 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively.
Inflation across the GCC remains low at 2.1 per cent, aided by subsidies, fuel price caps, and currency pegs, despite housing market pressures.
