In a serious warning, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) stated that there is an 80 percent chance that the annual average global temperature will temporarily surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
According to a new report by the WMO, the global mean near-surface temperature for each year from 2024 to 2028 is expected to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline.
The report suggests there is an 86 percent chance that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, surpassing 2023, which is currently the warmest year on record.
The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Update indicates a 47 percent likelihood that the global temperature average over the entire five-year period from 2024 to 2028 will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, up from 32 percent in last year’s report for the 2023-2027 period.
This serves as a stark reminder that we are approaching the targets set in the Paris Agreement on climate change, which focuses on long-term temperature increases over decades, rather than over one to five years.
The report was published to coincide with a significant speech by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, who called for much more ambitious climate action ahead of the G-7 summit in Italy from 13-15 June.
