Scott Livermore, ICAEW Economic Advisor and Chief Economist at Oxford Economics Middle East, projects that the UAE economy will grow by 4.8% in 2025. He expects the non-oil sector to expand by 4.6% in 2024.
Livermore noted that non-oil industries, particularly travel and tourism, will continue to flourish, with Dubai’s visitor numbers and traffic at DXB anticipated to reach new records. He predicted over 20% growth in visitor numbers this year, followed by double-digit growth next year.
Despite challenges such as higher interest rates, the UAE’s economy has remained resilient due to strong government support and the implementation of growth and diversification strategies like ‘We the UAE 2031’ and Dubai’s D33. Livermore added that these initiatives are driving investment activity and enhancing the country’s appeal to foreign investors and talent, particularly through measures such as 100% foreign ownership and lower business setup costs.
Livermore also highlighted that policymakers are focusing on innovative sectors like finance, creative industries, and manufacturing to sustain growth. Regarding US Federal Reserve interest rates, he mentioned that while initial expectations were for rate cuts in September, the Fed’s focus has shifted from inflation to the labour market. He predicted a 50bps rate cut by the end of 2024 and a further 150bps by the end of 2025, with cuts possibly accelerated if the labour market weakens.
He also forecast 2.7% global economic growth for 2023 and 2024, downplaying concerns about a US recession, describing recent trends as indicative of a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp downturn.
