The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has trimmed its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years, citing slower economic growth in China, the rise of electric vehicles, and broader shifts in consumption. However, OPEC maintains that peak oil demand is not yet in sight, and expects growth to continue over the long term, especially in developing regions.
The revised projections were released in OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook during its biennial seminar in Vienna. The event, which brings together ministers and executives from across the oil industry, saw the group assert its confidence in the enduring role of oil despite the ongoing global energy transition.
Demand growth moderates in short term
OPEC now expects global oil demand to average 105 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, rising to 106.3 million bpd in 2026 and 111.6 million bpd by 2029. These figures are lower than previous estimates, with the 2026 forecast down from 108 million bpd and the 2029 projection trimmed by 700,000 bpd.
According to OPEC, the revised outlook reflects slowing momentum in China, once a major engine of oil consumption. The group cited “slower economic growth, faster electric vehicle adoption, and continued fuel substitution across sectors” as key factors impacting demand in the country.
Despite these adjustments, OPEC’s long-term forecast diverges sharply from those of other forecasters. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts oil demand will peak at 105.6 million bpd by 2029, while BP sees a decline shortly after that. In contrast, OPEC continues to forecast sustained growth, projecting demand to reach 113.3 million bpd by 2030—unchanged from last year’s forecast.
Long-term demand led by developing nations
Looking further ahead, OPEC expects global oil demand to hit 122.9 million bpd by 2050, up from 120.1 million bpd projected last year. The report highlights strong future consumption in India, Africa, and the Middle East, where energy demand is likely to rise due to population growth, urbanisation, and economic development.
OPEC also noted that global shifts—such as the U.S. withdrawal from international climate accords and slower EV rollouts in Europe—may delay the energy transition in regions with high energy needs.
Production and investment outlook
While demand continues to rise, OPEC+ has begun easing production cuts made during the COVID-19 pandemic. Starting in April 2025, the group gradually raised output by 138,000 bpd, followed by monthly hikes of 411,000 bpd through August. However, separate production cuts totalling 3.65 million bpd remain in place until end-2026, and no decision has been made on releasing that additional supply.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated in the report:
“Oil underpins the global economy and is central to our daily lives. There is no peak oil demand on the horizon.”
In terms of investment, OPEC raised its estimate of needed capital for the oil industry to $18.2 trillion through 2050, up from $17.4 trillion in last year’s assessment.
