The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) noted in its September Monthly Oil Market Report that the UAE’s non-oil activities continue to show resilience. The country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.3 in August, recovering from 52.9 in July, its lowest reading in four years. Despite regional uncertainty and competition weighing on new orders, overall output growth remained steady.
The report also pointed to broader macroeconomic resilience. Fitch Ratings recently reaffirmed the UAE’s sovereign credit rating at “AA-” with a stable outlook, reflecting strong sovereign assets and boosting investor confidence.
Trade and Tourism Drive Diversification
Non-oil trade grew by 24 per cent in the first half of 2025, far exceeding the global trade expansion of 1.8 per cent. This performance not only highlights the UAE’s diversification strategy but also reinforces its role as a global trade hub. Tourism was another major contributor, with Dubai welcoming nearly 10 million visitors during the first six months of the year. This aligns with the Emirate’s “D33” economic agenda, designed to establish Dubai as a leading global destination, while strengthening fiscal revenues and overall stability.
Oil Market Outlook Remains Steady
On the oil front, OPEC kept its forecast for world demand growth in 2025 unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d). Demand in OECD regions is expected to rise by 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD countries are projected to add 1.2 mb/d. For 2026, global demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d, with OECD consumption rising 0.2 mb/d and non-OECD demand up by about 1.2 mb/d. Transportation fuels such as gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel will continue driving demand, followed by LPG and naphtha used in petrochemicals.
