Global Trade Trends and Their Impact on Business Strategy

As the global economy becomes increasingly complex in 2025, businesses must adapt to shifting trade policies, geopolitical tensions and rapid technological advancements. With the UAE positioned as a global trade hub, companies operating in the region have a unique opportunity to capitalise on emerging trends while mitigating potential risks.

According to our latest research, trade restrictions are on the rise, with the number of new trade barriers introduced globally in 2024 reaching five times the 2010–2019 average. Protectionist policies, particularly the US administration’s renewed focus on tariffs, could impact trade operations. An across-the-board 10 percentage point increase in US tariffs could reduce global GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points in 2025, with further declines if trade partners retaliate. This creates uncertainty, but also opportunities for regions like the Middle East that are proactively diversifying their economies.

To remain competitive, businesses must align with the UAE’s forward-looking trade policies. In 2023, non-oil foreign trade surpassed AED 2.3 trillion (USD 626 billion), and this upward trend is expected to continue in 2025, fuelled by Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and digital trade advancements. With the UAE’s digital economy strategy aiming to increase digital trade’s GDP contribution to 20% by 2031, businesses should consider integrating AI and blockchain into trade processes to remain competitive. To successfully navigate the evolving trade landscape, businesses should consider these strategic adjustments:

1. Diversify trade partnerships – Given uncertainties in US and European trade policies, companies should explore new opportunities in emerging markets across Asia and Africa. The UAE’s recent trade agreements with India, Indonesia and Turkey exemplify
   this shift.
2. Leverage digital trade infrastructure – The UAE’s advancements in paperless trade, AI-driven supply chain management and blockchain-based customs clearance provide a competitive edge. Investing in digital trade platforms will help streamline operations and reduce costs.
3. Navigate supply chain risks – The ACCA Q4 GECS highlights ongoing supply chain disruptions as a top risk in 2025. Integrating predictive analytics and AI-powered risk management tools will enhance supply chain resilience and prevent bottlenecks.
4. Embrace sustainable trade practices – As global policies shift towards carbon neutrality, sustainability in trade is becoming a key differentiator. Aligning with the UAE’s green trade initiatives, such as sustainable logistics and carbon offset programmes, will position businesses as leaders in responsible trade.

Despite global headwinds, the UAE’s financial-technological transformation presents significant opportunities. By embracing digital trade, strengthening regional partnerships and enhancing supply chain agility, businesses can successfully navigate and capitalise on the evolving trade landscape. The businesses that invest in digitalisation and diversified trade strategies now will be the ones leading the next wave of global trade success.