Air cargo spot rates are climbing steeply as the Middle East faces ongoing volatility and rapid shifts, triggered by US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent retaliatory actions across the region.
Recent weekly data from WorldACD Market Data indicates a modest recovery in air cargo activity since the conflict began. However, operating conditions for airlines, airports, and other stakeholders remain highly complex, with the situation continuing to evolve unpredictably.
Capacity saw a partial rebound last week, rising 35 per cent week-on-week. This supported a sharp recovery in cargo volumes from Gulf countries, which jumped 74 per cent after plunging 65 per cent the week before. Despite this improvement, volumes are still approximately 50 per cent below levels recorded prior to the conflict in mid-February.
Shipments originating from South Asia, which typically rely heavily on Gulf carrier capacity, also showed signs of recovery with a 24 per cent weekly increase. Even so, volumes remain about 20 per cent below pre-war levels. Spot rates from the region surged by 24 per cent week-on-week to $3.54 per kilogram, marking an increase of over 60 per cent within a fortnight.
In key trade lanes, cargo volumes from the Middle East and South Asia to Europe rose by 27 per cent compared to the previous week. Nevertheless, these figures remain 20 per cent below pre-conflict levels and 9 per cent lower than the same period last year, according to the report.
Dubai recorded a notable rebound in cargo volumes, increasing 67 per cent week-on-week after a 39 per cent decline in the preceding week. Despite the recovery, volumes are still around 30 per cent lower than pre-war benchmarks.
Spot rates from Gulf markets continued to trend upwards, rising a further 22 per cent week-on-week to reach $3.77 per kilogram. This places them approximately 56 per cent above levels seen before the conflict.
Drawing on over 500,000 weekly transactions, WorldACD data shows global air cargo rates increased by 10 per cent week-on-week during week 11 (March 9–15), reaching $2.67 per kilogram, inclusive of surcharges. This follows an 8 per cent rise the week prior, driven by market disruptions, reduced cargo capacity, rerouted flights, pent-up demand, persistent uncertainty, and elevated jet fuel costs.
